Wouter Bos on the two most important questions facing campaign teams

What are the campaign teams of the political parties up to these days, I wonder. A good campaign team knows there are two questions that need to be answered: what are the elections about? and, what is my party aiming for? The last question seems superfluous: shouldn’t any party ‘just’ want to win as many seats as possible?
It’s not as simple as that. For the VVD there might be a difference in becoming the biggest party or becoming as big a party as possible. The decision to adopt the Spring accord fits in more with the former than with the latter goal. For the SP, opting to become the biggest party would lead to a completely different campaign strategy than a decision to become a government party. The latter, for instance, could be a reason for toning down the SP’s stance on Europe which would make them more eligible for government. The price that would have to be paid is a loss of votes to the PVV.
Choice
I remember from my own campaigning days that the choice we faced was either to become the biggest party (by winning the leftwing vote) or to prevent a rightwing cabinet (by trying to hijack the centre vote). Either option comes with its own campaign strategy.
But the answer to the first question maybe more complex still: what are the elections about? And more specifically: what do we want the elections to be about? And how can we make it happen? This is the discussion about election framing. Every campaign team is looking for the holy grail: how to make the elections about an issue that is your party’s particular strong suit. Often this turns into a zero-sum game, i.e. one party will be able to do it and, consequently, another won’t.
The centre parties tried to make the elections about social-economic issues but it was Wilders who determined the playing field. Another example is the election battle that isn ‘t a referendum on whether or not the present government leader should be allowed to continue but all about the trustworthiness of the opposition leader.
Coincidence
Sometimes it’s less about strategy than coincidence. Tony Blair owed his first election victory to the fact that he happened to find out that many Brits resented the high maintenance costs of the Royal Yacht Brittania when the man in the street had trouble making ends meet. Royalist Blair was against using the Britannia as an election issue until a poll conducted by The Sun revealed that 80% of the population had turned against the expensive Britannia. Something similar happened to me in 2006 when I won my biggest ever victory for the PvdA in the local council elections. We won mainly because we focused on poverty, with the foodbank as its embarrassing symbol. It was only part strategy; we were surprised ourselves at the impact of the issue. It turned out to be a subject that not only spoke to the least well-off people in society but also took in the worries of the comparatively well-to-do. This is political gold and if you hit it, you’re can’t go wrong (if you’re the Pvda, that is).
The party that has an eye for what the elections will be about or is able to make them about an issue which will give it the advantage over other parties has got it made. A good campaign organisation will make everything it does fit into the frame: the campaign posters, the slogan, the subjects the party leader will make speeches on, the choice of debating partners, the subjects under discussion in the television debates.
Events
The results of a poll reported by the Volkskrant show that the issues that people are concerned about most are the economy, employment and income. Debt policy, the 3% deficit norm for 2013 from Brussels, taking responsability (Kunduz) and Europe did not figure in the list. Some campaign teams will find their favourite frame with no problem at all and others will have their work cut out for them.
And then, wouldn’t you know it, Greece leaves the euro a week before the elections. Time for a quick re-frame. Goodbye strategy. This must have been what Harold MacMillan referred to when he was asked what he, as a politician, feared the most. ‘Events, dear boy, events’, came the answer.
Wouter Bos (48) is a partner at professional services firm KPMG where he is responsible for healthcare. He was political leader of the PvdA and finance minister and deputy prime minister under Jan Peter Balkenende from 2007 to 2010.
This article was published earlier by the Volkskrant