The farmers’ party BBB could win 17 seats in the new Dutch senate, two more than predicted in initial exit polls.

With 94% of the votes counted, the BBB has been confirmed as the largest party in nine of the 12 provinces and has an unassailable lead in Gelderland. In Noord-Holland the party is marginally ahead of the VVD, while GroenLinks has a narrow lead in Utrecht.

The results are a setback for the government’s efforts to cut nitrogen compound emissions by buying out farmers, in order to comply with European conservation laws.

Since the Council of State ruled in 2019 that the government was bound by the limits provinces have been unable to issue environmental permits for large-scale projects such as housing developments, motorways and port facilities.

BBB leader Caroline van der Plas said the vote for her party was more than a protest against the nitrogen plans, which have led to mass protests in rural communities. Farmers have hung Dutch tricolor flags upside-down, blockaded distribution centres and driven fleets of tractors into the centre of The Hague and provincial capitals.

‘People feel unseen, unheard and that they’re not being listened to,’ she said. ‘They thought: it’s our turn now, and they’ve done that by turning out at the ballot box en masse.’

The BBB’s vote share was closely matched by the two left-wing parties, GroenLinks and Labour (PvdA), who are projected to take 15 seats in the senate.

That would allow them to supply the votes to give the government a majority in the upper house, but the parties are expected to put pressure on the cabinet to accelerate the transition to green energy.

‘There’s a choice in the upper house now. Will they go left or right?’ said GroenLinks leader Jesse Klaver. ‘We’ll come up with good proposals, but we will block laws if necessary and do everything in our power in parliament to ensure they turn left.’

The BBB took 33.5% of the vote in Drenthe and 31% in Overijssel, taking 17 seats in each of assembly while no other party won more than four. It is also set to win by clear margins in Gelderland and Noord-Brabant, two provinces with a large concentration of livestock farming.

The coalition parties all lost seats, with Mark Rutte’s VVD party finishing third in the poll on 10 provisional seats, two less than in 2019. D66 and the ChristenUnie are forecast to lose one senator each, with five and three respectively, while the Christian Democrats (CDA), many of whose traditional rural voters defected to the BBB, could lose four of their 9 seats.

The animal rights party PvdD is forecast to gain a fourth seat, while two newcomers, pro-European Volt and the hard-right JA21, could take two and three seats respectively.

The biggest losers were the far-right Forum voor Democratie, who won 14.3% of the vote in 2019 but slumped to just 3% this time around, after four years in which the party became embroiled in internal rows and saw all but one of its 12 senators defect.

Two of the groups behind the tractor protests, Farmers Defence Force and Agractie, called on farmers to celebrate the result by raising the Dutch flags the right way up, with the red stripe at the top.

‘The people have shown that they support the farmers and not the coalition,’ said Sieta van Keimpema of FDF.

‘We’ll turn the flag back round, but if there’s no movement or they form a left-wing coalition in the senate, then it’ll probably be switched again,’ cattle farmer René Staal told NOS.

12 provinces and the results

Drenthe
Provincial capital: Assen
Seats on the council: 41
Current coalition: VVD, GroenLinks, PvdA, CDA, ChristenUnie
Website (Dutch only)

2023 Provincial election top 5
BBB 33.5%
PvdA 9.4% (-4.7)
VVD 7.7% (-5.3)
CDA 5.9% (-4.6)
GL 5.6% (-2.7)

Flevoland
Provincial capital: Lelystad
Seats on the council: 40
Current coalition: VVD, GroenLinks, PvdA, CDA, ChristenUnie, D66
Website (Dutch only)

2023 Provincial election top 5
BBB 20.8%
VVD 9.9% (-3.3)
PVV 7.7% (-1.6)
PvdA 7.6% (-0.6)
GL 6.9% (-1.6)

Friesland
Provincial capital: Leeuwarden
Seats on the council: 49
Current coalition: VVD, PvdA, CDA, FNP (Frisian nationalists)
Website (Dutch and Frisian)

2023 Provincial election top 5
BBB 28%
PvdA 10.6% (-2.8)
CDA 8.7% (-8)
FNP 8% (+0.1)
VVD 6.8% (-2.6)

Gelderland
Provincial capital: Arnhem
Seats on the council: 55
Current coalition: VVD, GroenLinks, PvdA, CDA, ChristenUnie
Website  (Dutch, English, German)

2023 Provincial election top 5
BBB 23.8%
VVD 10% (-4)
PvdA 8,8% (+0.5)
GL 8% (-2.8)
CDA 7% (-4.6)

Groningen
Provincial capital: Groningen
Seats on the council: 43
Current coalition: VVD, GroenLinks, PvdA, CDA, ChristenUnie, D66
Website (Dutch only)

2023 Provincial election top 5
BBB 23.6%
PvdA 10% (-2)
GL 9.6% (-2.9)
CU 6.3% (-3.1)
VVD 5.7% (-2.8)

Limburg
Provincial capital: Maastricht
Seats on the council: 47
Current coalition: VVD, GroenLinks, PvdA, CDA, D66, EENLokaal
Website (Dutch only)

2023 Provincial election top 5
BBB 18.3%
PVV 12.7% (-0.8)
VVD 9.5% (-0.7)
CDA 9.2% (-9.5)
GL 8.7% (+0.3)

Noord-Brabant
Provincial capital: Den Bosch
Seats on the council: 55
Current coalition: VVD, GroenLinks, PvdA, CDA, D66
Website (Dutch and English)

2023 Provincial election top 5
BBB 18.2%
VVD 14.1% (-2.1)
GL 7.7% (-1)
PvdA 7.6% (+1.2)
SP 7.6% (-1.6)

Noord Holland
Provincial capital: Haarlem
Seats on the council: 55
Current coalition: VVD, GroenLinks, PvdA, D66
Website Dutch and English

2023 Provincial election top 5 (provisional)
BBB 14%
VVD 12.9% (-1.6)
GL 11% (-4.5)
PvdA 10.9% (+1.1)
D66 7.3% (-2.7)

Overijssel
Provincial capital: Zwolle
Seats on the council: 47
Current coalition: CDA, VVD, PvdA, ChristenUnie, SGP
Website (Dutch only)

2023 Provincial election top 5
BBB 31.3%
CDA 8.2% (-8.9)
VVD 8% (-4.9)
GL 7.6% (-1.9)
PvdA 6.7% (-1.8)

Utrecht
Provincial capital: Utrecht
Seats on the council: 49
Current coalition: VVD, GroenLinks, PvdA, D66, ChristenUnie
Website (Dutch and English)

2023 Provincial election top 5 (provisional)
GL 13.3% (-3.5)
BBB 13.1%
VVD 11.9% (-3.5)
D66 9.6% (-0.2)
PvdA 8% (-0.4)

Zeeland
Provincial capital: Middelburg
Seats on the council: 39
Current coalition: VVD, PvdA, CDA, SGP
Website (Dutch only)

2023 Provincial election top 5
BBB 19.7%
GL/PvdA 13.4% (-0.8)
SGP 12.5% (+0.4)
CDA 11.4% (-4.9)
VVD 8.9 (-1.4)

Zuid-Holland
Provincial capital: The Hague
Seats on the council: 55
Current coalition: VVD, GroenLinks, PvdA, CDA, SGP/ChristenUnie
(Website) Dutch only

BBB 13.7%
VVD 12.9% (-2.8)
GL 9.7% (+0.6)
D66 8% (-0.5)
PvdA 6.9% (-0.9)