Three of the four coalition parties are well down in popularity and the government is set to lose its majority in the upper house of parliament, according to the latest poll of polls.

The Peilingwijzer poll, an amalgam of six separate opinion polls, puts support for the VVD at between 16% and 18.7% – down the equivalent of seven seats on its performance in March 2017..

The Christian Democrats, from 19 seats to 11-13, and the Liberal democrats D66, from 19 to 11-12, are also well down on their 2017 general election result. ChristenUnie, by contrast, would win a couple more seats on its current total of five.

The coalition currently has a slim majority in the senate but, says poll compiler Tom Louwerse, ‘it is difficult to imagine’ they will retain this after the provincial election vote next month.

The 570 new members of the 12 provincial councils go on to elect the 75 members of the upper house of parliament in May.

Louwerse points out that the CDA traditionally does well in the provincial elections because its voters can be relied on to vote. Turnout in the provincial elections is always much lower than in the general election.

The poll of polls shows that Geert Wilders’ anti-Islam PVV is the biggest opposition party, with between 12% and 14.7% support – similar to its position at the March 2017 general election. The PVV is followed by the left-wing Greens with 11.3% – 12.7% of the vote.

Newcomer Forum voor Democratie, led by Thierry Baudet, is poised to make a splash in the provincial elections and currently has between 8% and 10.7% support.