The NOS exit poll, based on the voting behaviour of some 80,000 people at polling stations around the country, suggests the D66 liberal party is on target to win 27  seats in the Dutch general election, making them the biggest party.

The NOS poll puts the far right PVV in second place with 25 and VVD in third with 23  but the margin of error of one to two seats is enough to make the results extremely uncertain.

If the poll proves accurate, that means Rob Jetten is most likely to be the next prime minister of the Netherlands, and is a major blow to far right leader Geert Wilders, who won the 2023 election with 37 seats.

The result also confirms that four parties at least will be needed to form a new coalition with at least 76 of the 150 seats in the lower house of parliament.

Jan Paternotte, number 2 on the D66 list, said the result was “amazing”.

“If it is true, it will be D66’s biggest ever win in our 59-year history,” he said. “Rob Jetten fought a fantastic campaign. He told a positive story and left all of the negativity of the past two years behind him.”

NOS exit poll results

D66 27 (9)
PVV 25 (37)
VVD 23 (24)
GL-PvdA 20 (25)
CDA 19 (5)
JA21 9 (1)
Fvd 6 (3)
BBB 4 (7)
SP 3 (5)
Denk 3 (3)
PvdD 3 (3)
SGP 3 (3)
CU 2 (3)
Volt 1 (2)
50+ 2 (0)

Broadcaster NOS will publish an update at around 9.30.

Hannah Steen, number two on the Christian Democrats list, said her party was very happy with the results. “Two years ago we won five seats and now we have 19. The CDA is back in the centre of politics.”

Commentators said the results are extremely disappointing for the GroenLinks-PvdA alliance, which had hoped to be the biggest party and deliver Frans Timmermans as prime minister.

Ingrid Coenradie, the former PVV minister who switched to JA21, said her new party’s big win showed there was a need for a “decent right wing voice”. With nine MPs, JA21 had the right to a seat at the coalition negotiation table, she said.

VVD 

VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz took to the stage at her party’s post-election event to chants of “Dilan, Dilan”. She thanked her team who, she said, had fought like lions. Some polls had put the party’s support as low as 15 seats earlier in the campaign.

Yesilgöz also went on to congratulate D66, the CDA and JA21 on their gains in the polls. She hopes to form a centre-right government with the three other parties – which would just be possible, if the exit poll is accurate.

Catch up on all the news so far in a special election night podcast.