The system of ocean currents, including the Gulf Stream (AMOC) that helps keep north-western Europe relatively warm, may collapse as soon as 2060, a new study by Dutch climate scientists has shown.

Earlier prognoses put the collapse at 2100 at the earliest. “The mention of the year 2060 as the start of the shutdown of the Gulf Stream makes it very concrete,” researcher René van Westen said. “It is disconcertingly sooner than previously thought. It may even happen during our lifetime,” he told broadcaster NOS.

Research has already shown that the Gulf Stream is weakening and could come to a complete stop. If the AMOC shuts down, winter temperatures in the Netherlands and other parts of northern Europe could plummet, despite global warming continuing overall.

The UN climate panel IPCC said earlier that the point of no return for the Gulf Stream would come when global warming reaches 4°. At 4%, it will definitely happen in 2060, Van Westen said, but this study shows there is a 50% chance it could happen at 2.5°. Global warming is currently 1.3°.

The AMOC slowdown is already having an effect, Van Westen said. “We can expect a slight cooling off in the coming years,” he said.

According to Delft University oceans and climate expert Caroline Katsman, who was not involved in the study, the results of the “robust” research show the necessity of reducing greenhouse gases. You don’t want to get on a downward slide that can’t be stopped,” she said.

Sybren Drijfhout, climate professor at Southampton and Utrecht universities, called the 2060 scenario “statistically uncertain”. “There will always be unknowns, and different models predict different things. But what is certain is that if emissions continue to go up, the chances of a collapse increase as well. That is an important message, ” he said.

A collapse can mean a much colder climate for the Netherlands, with rising sea levels and more storm surges. Agricultural produce could be reduced by a third, Drijfhout said.

“People laughingly say that we will be able to skate more. But we won’t have time to skate because we will be too busy trying to find ways to produce food,” Katsman said.

According to Van Westen, it is not too late. “Our study also shows that if you limit global warming, the risk of a collapse of the Gulf Stream will diminish. And it can even be prevented completely, but we will have to take action now,” he said.