The Dutch infrastructure ministry has secretly commissioned scientists to investigate whether global warming could lead to colder weather in the Netherlands, due to its impact on the Gulf Stream, broadcaster NOS reported on Friday.

Experts from Delft University, the KNMI weather bureau and the Deltares institute are studying the potential consequences, because computer models suggest changes to the Gulf Stream are becoming more likely.

The Gulf Stream brings warmer water to the Netherlands and north-western Europe, which is why the climate is much milder than in Canada, despite being on the same latitude.

“The most likely scenario is still that it will become warmer, but this is a new insight we cannot ignore,” said Co Verdaas, who chairs the Delta commission and is leading the research project.

Research has already shown that the Gulf Stream is weakening and could come to a complete stop.

“We are concerned, because five years ago we thought this was an impossible disaster scenario, but the newest climate models show it is more likely than we thought,” said KNMI oceanographer Sybren Drijfhout.

A spokesman for the ministry said it is important to understand what the potential impact on the Netherlands could be.

Without the Gulf Stream, experts say the country will face drier conditions, more severe storms, lower crop yields, a higher sea level and much colder summers and winters.

More research on the issue is expected to be published in the coming months.