The left-wing opposition party GroenLinks-PvdA has overtaken Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV in a Dutch opinion poll for the first time since the general election 18 months ago.

The weekly Peil.nl panel survey run by pollster Maurice de Hond puts GL-PvdA on 29 seats, one more than the PVV, with coalition partner VVD in third place on 26. Wilders’ party is currently the largest group in parliament with 37 MPs.

De Hond said there had been a clear shift in public opinion since February, when the PVV held an eight-seat lead over its nearest rivals. Since then Wilders’ party has declined by four seats while GL-PvdA and the VVD have both gained five, out of a total of 150.

The focus on global security and the growing threat of a recession since Donald Trump returned to the White House appear to have prompted voters to revert to mainstream parties.

The centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) are also on an upward trend, recovering to 19 seats after winning just five at the last election. The progressive-liberal D66, which had been gaining ground, has suffered a downturn in support since February, suggesting its voters are switching to GL-PvdA.

NSC facing wipeout

At the other end of the scale, Nieuw Sociaal Contract (NSC), whose leader Pieter Omtzigt resigned last week on health grounds, are now projected to lose 19 of the 20 seats they won in November 2023, while the BBB is down to three.

De Hond said voters were also critical of the measures in the spring budget statement, with only the extra €1.1 billion for defence gaining strong support.

Respondents gave the measure an average score of seven on a scale of one to 10, while only three other policies – freezing social housing rents for two years, not raising alcohol duty and cutting the climate change budget – scored better than five.

The Peilingwijzer poll of polls, which does not include De Hond’s figures, still gives the PVV a three-seat lead over GL-PvdA and the VVD, but it has not been updated since the spring budget deal.