Taxes up, taxes down: impact of spending package unclear

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Finance minister Eelco Heinen has admitted the government does not yet know what impact the measures agreed in last week’s spring statement will have on individual households, even though much of the focus has been on cutting the cost of living for average families.

“I am letting the [macro-economic think tank] CPB do all the calculations, so we have to wait two weeks for that,” Heinen told reporters on Friday.

“We did not talk about spending power. That is something we will do in August,” he said. “This was just about reaching an agreement.”

The four coalition parties have come up with a string of measures, many of which will be paid for by reallocating money from other projects. For example, the €1.9 billion now allocated to building a railway between Groningen and Enschede has been taken from the budget for a line from Lelystad to the north.

The plans include not increasing the income tax thresholds in line with inflation, which means people will pay more income tax. The tax on savings will apply to those with more than €51,000, rather than €58,000 as currently, and the decision to scrap the tax exemption on dairy drinks will add slightly to food bills.

At the same time, the tax on energy bills will go down slightly across the board, and the planned increase in tax on alcoholic drinks has been cancelled.

“Choices have to be made,” Heinen said. “Politicians always want everything at the same time, but we can’t. I understand what people want, but we must make sure that we are covered financially.”

The measures mean the budget deficit will be 2.6% this year but will nudge 3% – the maximum allowed under EU rules – in 2026.

Mixed reactions

Commentators have, in the main, been critical of the package.

“The coalition has been fighting to the last cent about a spending power problem they thought up themselves,” said the Financieele Dagblad in its analysis.

The NRC described the plans as “vision-free horse trading”, reflecting the mistrust within a coalition preparing to campaign in a general election.

“Everything that has been agreed is a present for one of the four coalition parties’ supporters – more defence for the right-wing liberal VVD, railways for the BBB, a social housing rent freeze for the anti-immigration PVV,” the paper said.

“But it is completely unclear who is picking up the bill, and that is not a good situation, to put it mildly.”

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