The PVV’s lead over its closest rivals has shrunk to three seats, or 2% of the vote, the smallest margin since the November 2023 election, according to a new poll.

The survey run by pollster Maurice de Hond gives the far-right party led by Geert Wilders 30 seats, down from 32 in the last poll two weeks ago and the 37 seats it won at the election.

The coalition as a whole would win 60 seats on De Hond’s projection, down from the 88 it currently has in parliament and well short of the 76 it needs for a majority.

The four parties’ vote share is unchanged from two weeks ago, thanks to a two-seat gain for the right-wing liberal VVD to 23 seats, while the smaller partners NSC and BBB would win three and four respectively.

The PVV’s decline coincides with a three-seat gain for the left-wing alliance of GroenLinks-PvdA to 27 seats. The biggest winners since the election are the Christian Democrats (CDA), who are up to 18 seats after winning just five in 2023.

De Hond also found that just 22% of voters are satisfied with the performance of the government, but confidence has fallen off strongly among PVV supporters. A slim majority (53%) still said they were satisfied, down from 67% six weeks ago and 83% in September, the start of the current parliamentary year.

Two-thirds of voters (67%) believe that the behaviour of the United States since Donald Trump took office has increase the chance of war with Russia.

The sentiment is particularly strong among GL-PvdA voters (91%) and the progressive liberal D66 (83%), while only 43% of BBB supporters and 41% of PVV backers agreed.

Three-quarters (77%) supported the European Union’s plan to invest an extra €800 million in defence while two-thirds were in favour of sending another €3.5 billion to Ukraine, though BBB and PVV voters were against the latter measure.