More than one-third of the new homes scheduled to be built in the Netherlands by 2030 may not be realised because of nitrogen-based pollution rules, according to Dutch construction lobby group Bouwend Nederland.

The organisation says 244,000 homes close to environmentally-sensitive areas are at risk because of the impact of nitrogen-based pollution emitted during construction. Around 75% of plans for schools, hospitals, and other public service buildings are also in doubt.

The calculations are based on two recent court rulings focusing on the nitrogen emission problem.

In January, judges in The Hague ruled that the government must do more to prevent nitrogen-based damage to sensitive areas, ordering the state to cut nitrogen levels in at least 50% of the 162 Natura 2000 zones by 2030 or face a €10 million fine.

Last December, the Council of State also halted the practice of offsetting nitrogen emissions against each other to allow construction without a pollution permit.

“This will impact €138 billion in investments,” lobby group chairman Arno Visser said. “It is bizarre, and this is not something we, as a country, should be doing.”

Housing Minister Mona Keijzer has set a target of building 100,000 new homes a year to address the housing shortage but has said it will take a couple of years to reach that pace, as measures to reduce bottlenecks need time to take effect.

Drenthe, Gelderland, Overijssel, and Noord-Brabant have already introduced a halt to new permits. “I sometimes wonder if people really feel the need for urgency or not,” Visser said.

The lobby group has called on local authorities to focus on projects that can proceed while the government finds a solution to the nitrogen problem.

It has also drawn up a list of suggestions to help cut nitrogen emissions, ranging from developing emissions-free inland shipping to reducing the protein intake of cattle on factory farms.