The meteorological winter begins this week with milder temperatures than usual, reaching 11° on Monday, compared with a “normal” 7°, weather bureau Weeronline said.

The rest of the week will be cooler, however, with rain again on Thursday after Monday’s showers.  From Friday the forecasts are more uncertain, Weeronline said, and there is a relatively good chance of a wet and windy weekend ahead.

Weeronline’s weather models suggest that after a relatively mild start to December, things will return to normal in the second half, which means it will rain more frequently and heavily. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be around the usual 5-7°.

While it’s too early to predict the weather for Christmas itself, Weeronline says the final weeks of the year seem unlikely to be as mild as in previous years. In fact, some weather models are forecasting colder than usual conditions in the week leading up to Christmas.

Statistically speaking, the chance of a white Christmas is about 7%, which would mean fully snow-covered ground on December 25 and 26 at the De Bilt weather station. Given the expected temperatures and the few models forecasting colder weather than usual, the chances of an official white Christmas are put by Weeronline at 15%.

The last official white Christmas was in 2010.