The head of the Dutch military security service MIVD has told the Financieele Dagblad in an interview that “it is possible” Russia will start a regional conflict once it is “finished with Ukraine,” with the aim of testing whether the Nato alliance can be broken up.

Peter Reesink, who took over at the helm of the MIVD in February, told the paper that Russia could be ready for an armed conflict with Nato before 2030 and that he is taking an “actual attack” into account.

The Baltic and Scandinavian countries are far better prepared for conflict than the Netherlands because they are closer to Russia and encounter Russian warships on a daily basis, he said.

“We cannot lean back and sleep,” he told the paper. “More than that, the Netherlands and a number of other countries need to wake up. As a society, we have believed for a long time that our companies do business all over the world and our economic links will ensure there is no more conflict. But things don’t work like that.”

Nato speech

The MIVD director’s interview comes just a day after new Nato chief and former Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte said in a speech that the alliance needed to “shift to a wartime mindset and turbocharge our defense production and defense spending.”

Moscow, he said, is “preparing for long-term confrontation with Ukraine and with us,” and noted that the current security situation is the worst in his lifetime.
“We are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years,” he said in his first major speech since becoming secretary general in October.

Just last week, the Dutch defense ministry said the cabinet is to take more steps to ensure the country can withstand a major armed conflict or other crises, such as a pandemic or long-lasting collapse in essential services.

“The Russian aggression, which extends beyond Ukraine, has made possible something that was once unthinkable: the direct involvement of Nato—and thus our country—in a large-scale armed conflict,” defense minister Ruben Brekelmans said in a 19-page briefing to parliament.

“While this conflict may not occur on Dutch soil, if our country is involved or if it takes place in the vicinity of the Netherlands, we will also be part of it.”

Destabilisation

The focus is also on attempts from abroad to destabilise Dutch society, create unrest, or cause economic damage, the minister said. As part of this, they said, all Dutch households should have emergency supplies on hand—such as sufficient food and a radio—as they did during the Cold War.

Cash call

Dutch banks are also poised to warn clients that they should have enough cash at home to deal with a major internet outage.

Military expert Frans Osinga told the AD that there is no reason to be afraid now. “But we must become aware of the changing geopolitical situation,” he said. “To prevent a crisis, you have to get prepared.”

This is particularly the case now that American support for Europe will become more unlikely under Donald Trump, who has made it clear that China is his priority, he said.