The Dutch government’s 2025 spending plans have fallen short of European Commission guidelines, making the Netherlands the only EU member state to fail the budget test so far.

Under European rules, countries are required to keep their budget deficits below 3% of GDP. The Commission has warned that the Netherlands is at risk of breaching that limit. As a result, the government will need to make additional savings, at its discretion, to avoid further deficit growth.

“The Netherlands is assessed to be not in line with the recommendation, as the net expenditure is projected above the ceilings,” the Commission said in its autumn budget statement on Tuesday. Lithuania, among the 21 other countries assessed, also “risks” failing to comply.

The Commission forecasts the Dutch budget deficit will rise from 0.2% of GDP this year to 2.4% within two years. Extra measures are needed, it said, to prevent the deficit from growing further.

While the impact of the EU’s assessment is currently limited, the Commission could intervene if the Netherlands continues to breach the budget rules. The criticism is significant, however, given the Netherlands’ reputation for insisting on fiscal discipline from other EU countries.

In response, Dutch finance minister Eelco Heinen insisted the Netherlands is still in compliance with EU budget rules and pointed to the country’s low national debt, which stands at 45% of GDP.  That is “half the European average,” he told broadcaster RTL.

Nevertheless, Heinen has acknowledged the need for further measures to ensure long-term fiscal health. “We are spending too much, so we have to look there,” he said. “No one likes making cuts or putting up taxes.”