The right wing Dutch government’s plans to introduce border controls, send Syrian refugees back to “safe” zones and make housing “more basic”, will do little to reduce the number of refugees arriving in the Netherlands, experts say.

They will, however, make conditions for refugees already living in the Netherlands more difficult, by making it harder to integrate into Dutch society.

The plans, leaked on Wednesday and backed by all four coalition party leaders, replace Geert Wilders’ demand for emergency legislation which would have allowed ministers to bypass parliament in bringing in new laws.

The plans, which will need to pass through both houses of parliament, are expected to be rubber-stamped by ministers at Friday’s cabinet meeting.

Refugee aid group Vluchtelingenwerk said in a reaction that the cabinet appears to be trying to make the Netherlands an unattractive location for refugees. By scrapping longer residency permits, and assessing every three years if refugees can stay, people will not make an effort to integrate, the agency said.

“Why would you bother to learn Dutch when you are followed by the risk you could be sent back,” Vluchtelingenwerk said. “And if it is being made so difficult for you to find a permanent, normal place to live, why would you try to make friends and find a job? Or contribute to society?”

The plans “are no solution for the problems that we have”, said Socialist Party leader Jimmy Dijk. The shortage of housing would not be solved and by withdrawing legislation to ensure all local councils take their fair share of refugees, the richest 20 councils will still be able to get away with doing nothing, he said.

ChristenUnie leader Mirjam Bikker said the cabinet is opting to create problems, rather than solve them. “If people are stuck in refugee centres for a long time, they don’t integrate,” she said.

Rob Jetten, leader of the Liberal democratic party D66, said the new cabinet has wasted four months already. “We are going to look and see if the plans will lead to fewer arrivals and better housing,” he said. “Or is it just a lot of hot air?”

The biggest opposition party, GroenLinks-PvdA, has not given an official reaction so far.

Syrian nationals

Trouw points out that the plan to declare parts of Syria safe will depend on the outcome of a foreign affairs ministry analysis. The entire country is currently “red” in the ministry’s travel recommendations.

Even if parts of Syria are declared safe, the Netherlands will have to force refugees to return and that will involve having diplomatic relations with Damascus, something the Netherlands currently does not have, Trouw said.

Banning adult children from joining their parents will only affect a handful of people, and banning unmarried partners could be considered “indirect discrimination” against LGBTI+ couples, lawer Wil Eikelboom told the paper.