The government’s macro-economic forecasting unit CPB will publish its latest forecasts on Friday, and they will pave the way for the new government to begin finalising its spending plans for 2025.

Ministers will also meet for the first time in a formal setting since the summer recess on Friday, to start the count down to the budget presentation in two month’s time. 

The government will publish its 2025 spending plans on September 17, the third Tuesday in September. But this year’s budget presentation will be more complicated than usual, given ministers and civil servants are still fleshing out their policy plans.

The coalition agreement, finalised in June, only outlined broad policy measures and did not go into detail about how the changes will be realised. Civil servants have been working on the plans all summer, but the final touches will depend on the CPB’s calculations.

Prime minister Dick Schoof has already said the government will have less money to play with than in previous years and has warned that hard choices will have to be made.

This will not only impact the right-wing coalition’s spending plans but will also reduce the new government’s ability to make a gesture of good faith toward the opposition – as is traditional during the budget debates.

This year, for example, left-wing parties will pressure the government to do more to lift children out of poverty, by continuing to fund free school meals, news website Nu.nl reported.

In addition, several setbacks also need solving. In June, the Supreme Court ruled that people who had paid too much in asset tax – because the government used an assumed increase not actual figures – should be compensated. The total bill could be as high as €4 billion.

The failure to sell the German energy grid owned by Dutch state-owned grid operator Tennet is another setback that will impact the government’s finances.

The VVD has made it clear that it will not accept an increase in the budget deficit that contravenes EU rules. And experts have warned that the savings included in the coalition agreement are largely based on sand.  

For example, the agreement includes a saving of €1 billion a year on spending on refugees, without any concrete plans on how this is to be achieved. Other cuts in the planning include €1 billion in spending on education and €1.6 billion on contributions to the EU – also both without foundation at present.