Half of the Netherlands’ petrol stations are set to close in the next five to 10 years as electric cars start to take over the market, according to ING Research.

The bank’s economists say there will be insufficient earnings in future, with only some 2,000 of today’s 4,131 gas stations remaining.

“It is mainly the small, unmanned petrol stations that will disappear,” says ING Research, as reported in De Telegraaf.

A record turnover of €12.9 billion was achieved in 2022, aided in part by the surge in fuel prices as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the energy crisis.

But as electric vehicles replace petrol and diesel cars, small stations with unmanned pumps that rely on fuel sales will disappear, especially in the border regions where less expensive options abound.

Long-term decline

Owners are trying to maintain turnover by increasing their sales of food and beverages, maintenance services and even car washing, ING says. But the long-term business model of independent stations will be difficult to maintain.

“A quick calculation shows how long petrol station owners can still sell petrol,” Dirk Mulder, Trade & Retail sector banker at ING Research, said.

“A new car remains in the Dutch fleet for an average of 19 years. The last petrol and diesel cars will come onto the market in 2034 and will stay on the road until approximately 2053.

No investment

“A petrol station owner can therefore still sell fossil fuels for a while, but sales will continue to decline. Nothing will appear to happen until 2025, after which there will be a decrease in litres.”

Figures for 2023 are not yet known, but ING Research says big brands such as Shell, BP and TotalEnergies will be spared from the cuts. It’s the smaller, independent gas stations that will take the hit, including family businesses.

“They will no longer want to make major investments, such as maintenance or the construction of new pumps,” said ING.

The bank expects to see a spate of takeovers, particularly by medium-sized operators looking to increase their share of the market. Larger companies, meanwhile, are looking to expand their market and invest more heavily in battery systems, for example.