The left-wing alliance GroenLinks-PvdA is set to take eight seats in the European parliament, making it the biggest Dutch grouping in Brussels, according to an updated exit poll by broadcaster NOS.

The far-right PVV, which had been tipped to top the poll, is on target to win seven seats, the exit poll said.

The official Dutch results will not be published until Sunday evening, after voting ends in the rest of the EU. Turnout was almost 47%, which is five percentage point up on 2019.

The exit poll, based on a representative sample of polling stations, has a margin of error of one seat, which means the Dutch results are far from certain given the number of parties predicted to win one or no seats.

The poll suggests the VVD are set to win four seats, while the Christian Democrats and D66 are both forecast to do better than predicted with three MEPs each. The pro-countryside BBB are polled at two seats, while four parties are on target to win one seat – newcomers NSC, plus the fundamentalist Protestant SGP, pro-animal PvdD and Volt.

However, the ChristenUnie, pro-Putin FvD and the SP are all close to one seat, so much can still change, the NOS said.

The PVV’s strong performance reflects their big win in the November general election although their share of the vote is down.

Backing for the VVD is also down on its November 2023 performance, but support for new parties NSC and BBB, which are forming the new coalition government together with Wilders and the VVD, has plunged.

The PVV had been polling far higher in national opinion polls, but always struggles in the European elections because of the traditionally low turnout among anti-EU voters.

Commentators said the results of the Dutch Europen election are symbolically important in the wake of the national elections in November, given support for the new right-wing coalition is down, and translated into the national parliament, would not be able to form a majority.

The Netherlands elected 26 MPs in 2019 and was given an addition three seats in the European parliament when Britain left the EU.

The NOS updated exit poll

GroenLinks-PvdA 8  (3+6)

PVV   7 ( 0 + 1 following Brexit)

VVD   4  (4 + 1 following Brexit)

CDA   3  (4)

D66   3  (2)

BBB 2 (0)

Volt   1 (0)

NSC  1 (0)

SGP 1  (1)

PvdD 1 (1)