The GroenLinks-PvdA alliance is set to be the biggest Dutch group in the new-look European parliament with the far-right PVV polling in second place, according to the NOS exit poll. Turnout in the closely-watched vote, was almost 47% and the highest in 35 years.

The actual Dutch results will be published on Sunday evening, but the exit poll suggests the left-wing alliance will take eight of the 31 Dutch parliamentary seats, while the PVV will win seven. Geert Wilders’ party won no seats in 2019, although the Eurosceptic Forum voor Democratie (FVD), now about to be wiped out, took four.

According to research by Ipsos I&O for broadcaster NOS, a large proportion of people who voted for one of the four parties set to form a right-wing government in the Netherlands stayed home. As many as 59% of people who backed Pieter Omtzigt’s NSC in November stayed away, as did 56% of those who voted for the PVV.

Compared with the 2023 general election results, support for the right-wing coalition parties has fallen from 56.3% to 38.5%, while backing for the left-wing alliance is up from almost 16% to almost 22%.

“If you look at how we have done, how the CDA has done, the D66 gain, the Volt win, you see that the parties that are for Europe, that choose for a stronger Europe, have done well in this election,” GreenLeft-Labour alliance leader Frans Timmermans told Nieuwsuur. “And that is also a clear signal from the Dutch people also to the rest of Europe: you can count on us if we need to solve things in Europe together.”

Wilders, who dropped his campaign for a Nexit in order to form a government, said he hoped that Sunday’s results would put the PVV in first place. ‘The turnout is higher than we hoped but it’s never as high as a parliamentary election. Left-wing party voters are often more disciplined about voting,” he said.

NOS correspondent Arjan Noorlander said symbolism is important in politics ‘so you can say that GroenLinks-PvdA has won’ although Wilders had gained the most votes. ‘About two-thirds of the Dutch have voted for a party that is emphatically for European cooperation,’ he said.

The NRC says in its analysis that Wilders’ gains show the Netherlands is “moving towards the Eurosceptic right” even if his performance is not as strong as in the November general election.

Although Wilders described the results as the party’s greatest victory (they won five seats in 2011) he was unable to hide his disappointment at not being the biggest party, given his campaign had largely consisted of warning about the risk of GroenLinks-PvdA and Frans Timmermans winning, the paper said.

Comparisons with the 2019 results are difficult because the Dutch delegation to the EU parliament has expanded from 26 to 31 since then.

The exit poll

GroenLinks-PvdA 8  (3+6)

PVV   7 ( 0 + 1 following Brexit)

VVD   4  (4 + 1 following Brexit)

CDA   3  (4)

D66   3  (2)

BBB 2 (0)

Volt  1 (0)

NSC  1 (0)

SGP 1  (1)

PvdD 1 (1)

The far-right, pro-Putin Forum voor Democratie is set to be wiped out. The ChristenUnie and 50Plus are also unlikely to return to Europe.

Turnout in the Dutch elections for the European parliament was almost 47%, five percentage points up on 2019 and the highest figure since 1989.

Employers organisations VNO-NCW and MKB-Nederland said in a reaction to the exit poll that the pro-EU majority is positive, as is the increase in the number of people voting.

It is also in the interests of the Netherlands to continue to be a constructive partner and to contribute to cooperation within the EU, given the current geo-political situation, the organisations said.