Some 25% of the people planning to vote in the June 6 European elections will cast their ballot in favour of the far-right PVV, according to a new opinion poll by Ipsos I&O.

That is in line with the party’s share of the vote at the November general election, and down on current national polls. “But people who voted PVV in 2023 are less enthusiastic about voting in June than the average voter, even though only a small proportion say they definitely won’t vote,” Ipsos I&O said.

If the poll holds up, the PVV, which won no seats in 2019, would account for nine of the 31 Dutch MEPs. In 2019, the Dutch elected 26 of the 720 MEPs in the European parliament.

Around half of those questioned said they would vote, but in 2019, the turnout was only 42%.

The GroenLinks-PvdA alliance is on target to take second place, with 20% of the vote, and seven seats – two less than their combined current total.

The right-wing Liberal VVD is in third place with six seats and D66, CDA and Volt would each win two.

BBB, pro-animal PvdD and fundamentalist Christian SGP are each on target to win one. Pieter Omzigt’s NSC, the CU, the far right FvD and the Socialists would not win any seats in the current poll, but the differences between all seven are extremely small, Ipsos I&O said.

The pollsters also asked about the big issues, with 46% citing immigration and asylum, 33% climate change and 30% international security and wars.

The results are very different from those from the latest Eurobarometer survey, which said the top priority for the next European parliament, according to Dutch voters, is climate change (51% against an average of 31% in the EU).

The second priority is the fight against poverty, which across the EU is considered the main issue, the Eurobarometer polls said.

The next elections for the European parliament take place in the Netherlands on Jun 6, 2024. All EU nationals living in the Netherlands are eligible to vote but need to be on a special register to do so.

In March, city councils across the country told Dutch News they would be contacting their EU voters, who have until April 22 to sign up.