With two weeks to go to the general election, Pieter Omtzigt’s new party NSC and the right-wing VVD are pulling ahead of the GroenLinks/PvdA alliance, according to the latest poll of polls. 

The amalgam, put together by Leiden political scientist Tom Louwerse, is based on two opinion polls carried out by  I&O Research and Ipsos/EenVandaag.

It now puts the NSC on between 25 and 31 seats in the 150-seat lower house of parliament and the VVD on 26 to 30 seats. The left-wing alliance led by former EU commissioner Frans Timmermans is on 21 to 25. 

No party can count on the support of more than 20% of the electorate.

“The GroenLinks/PvdA combination is now about the same in the poll of polls as it was before the parties decided to work together,” Louwerse told broadcaster NOS. “They’ve been virtually unchanged all year.” 

I&O said earlier that Timmermans has failed to convince the public and that climate change, an issue on which the alliance scores well, has been sidelined in the election campaign.  

Pieter Omtzigt, by contrast, is considered to be the most convincing of the three party leaders, while VVD’s campaign Dilan Yesilgöz is valued by her own voters in particular. 

Much can, however, still change, Louwerse said, pointing out that the Netherlands has a short campaign. “In 2021, D66 went up suddenly in the last week, and in 2017, the VVD pulled clearly away from the PVV.”

The far right party is currently fourth in the polls with 16 to 20 seats, in line with the last election.

The pro-countryside BBB, which dominated in the provincial elections earlier this year, has fallen in popularity again, as its voters move to the NSC. Support has increased slightly for D66 which is now challenging the BBB for fifth place.