The Dutch election campaign entered its last day on Tuesday with a new poll predicting that the GroenLinks/PvdA alliance has caught up with the VVD.

The I&O poll puts the VVD and the alliance both on 27 seats, the far right PVV on 26 and suggests Pieter Omzigt’s new party has continued to lose support. The NSC, the poll suggests, will win 21 seats in the 150-seat lower house of parliament, down four on the previous I&O poll.

The decline of the pro-countryside BBB has also continued and, the poll predicts, will win just six seats. D66 is now in fifth place with eight. The poll is also further evidence that at least four parties will be needed to form a government once the votes have been counted.

At the same time, however, the number of floating voters remains extremely high, with around 60% still unsure of their choice. Strategic voting is also playing a role, with the GroenLinks/PvdA alliance and D66 urging voters a televised debate at the Ahoy concert hall on Monday night to make sure the Netherlands does not get a right-wing government.

Pundits suggest the rise of the alliance in the final days of the campaign may be down to a wish to keep out the far right. VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz has also appeared to play down expectations that Geert Wilder’s PVV could have a role in the next coalition, despite earlier opening the door for the party.

“I never said I wanted to be in a coalition with him,” she told Nieuwsuur.

Party leaders will take part in their final televised debate on Tuesday evening which will be covered live by Dutch News on social media. Feel free to join us on: Twitter, Mastodon and Bluesky. The nine biggest parties are on NOS live at 8.30 pm.