The Dutch November general election is set to become a three-horse race between the VVD, Pieter Omtzigt’s new party NSC, and the GroenLinks-PvdA alliance, according to a new poll from I&O research.

The poll puts the VVD, led by current justice minister Dilan Yésilgoz, on 27 seats in the 150-seat parliament, with the other two parties both on 26. That means no party can yet count on more than 20% support.

The far-right PVV are trailing in fourth place with 18 seats and the pro-farmers BBB are on 11 – well down from their performance in the provincial elections earlier this year.

The poll also shows the NSC has the greatest potential to add to its vote, buoyed by support for Omtzigt himself. Although he said earlier he did not want to be prime minister, that position has softened slightly in recent days. The NSC has not yet published its election manifesto.

Earlier polls have also indicated the three parties will dominate the election – and could form a coalition without the need for a fourth party.

The poll is based on a representative survey of nearly 2,300 adults.

A total of 29 parties have submitted lists of candidates to contest the general election next month – 12 fewer than at the last election in 2021.

Only Dutch nationals can vote in the general election. If you’d like to have your say, take part in the Dutch News election survey.