There is a real risk the Netherlands will not meet the 2% Nato defence spending target despite pledges to do so by 2024, the Telegraaf said on Wednesday.

According to the latest prognoses, Dutch defence outgoings will reach no more than 1.96% of GDP next year, falling short of the target by €400 million, the paper said.

The July forecasts suggest defence spending will not reach Nato’s 2% target until 2027 at least. The reason is down to the defence ministry budget not rising in line with economic growth, a spokesman told the paper.

Prime minister Mark Rutte pledged again last month that the Netherlands would meet the target in 2024.

This could change in September when the outgoing government publishes its 2024 spending plans, although these will be largely devoid of new policy because the cabinet is acting in a caretaker role.