The November general election is likely to be a three-way battle between the PvdA/GroenLinks combination, the VVD and pro-farmers BBB, according to an I&O opinion poll.

The PvdA/GroenLinks grouping would be on top with 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament, 11 more than they currently have as separate parties and up five on last month’s poll, the survey of nearly 3,000 people found.

The VVD would take 25 seats in the 150-seat lower house of parliament and the BBB 21. But if independent MP Pieter Omtzigt opted to set up his own party, it could win 46 seats, or over 30% of the vote, slashing support for the BBB and taking votes from across the political spectrum, apart from GroenLinks and the fundamentalist Protestant SGP.

Omtzigt has not yet said if he will launch his own party but has ruled out a return to the Christian Democrats whom he left after the last election in 2021.

The poll also predicts immigration will be a key theme in the coming campaign, and says that justice minister Dilan Yesilgöz, who is set to lead the VVD effort, will draw voters from both the BBB and far right JA21. 

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“Immigration and asylum is the most important issue thanks to the cabinet collapse, and the VVD and Yesilgöz are benefiting from that,” I&O researcher Peter Kanne told the Volkskrant. “BBB needs the focus to be on farming and nitrogen, but that has now ebbed away.”

As yet, there is no concrete candidate to lead the PvdA/GroenLinks campaign. The names of both Amsterdam PvdA chief Marjolein Moorman and European commissioner Frans Timmermans have been mooted.