The risk of a terrorist attack taking place in the Netherlands will increase if the IS-held caliphate collapses because returning fighters will strengthen jihadist movements in the Netherlands, according to the latest report by the Dutch counter-terrorism agency NCTV.

Nevertheless, the risk of an attack in the Netherlands remains level 4 on a scale of 5 and very few people have left for Syria and Iraq since the beginning of this year, the report, published on Monday, states.

In addition, there are signs that a number of Dutch jihadis want to return home but have been unable to do so.

The increasing polarisation in the Netherlands is also having an impact on the risk level and this could intensify in the run up to the March 2017 election, the report states.

‘There is always more risk of an attack by a lone wolf during campaigning,’ the report said, adding that such an attack could come from either extreme right-wing or left-wing sources.