‘Polare is the quintessential canary in the coal mine, which signals again and again that this is not just about the collapse of a leading book store chain. This is about the future of Dutch city centres, about a knowledge economy and about the quality of Dutch culture,’ writes publisher Alexander M. Dake.

During my recent visit to Holland, where I met fellow publishers and book store owners to discuss developments in the book trade, naturally the situation at Polare came up. Now back in my home town New York, I keep following a steady stream of Dutch commentaries about Polare.

There’s author Kluun, for example, who doesn’t consider the apparent disappearance of old-fashioned  ‘reading books for hours and hours’ a problem, and journalist Max Pam, who says he just needs small but knowledgeable book stores. Others are blaming Polare’s management for its demise, and then there was the news about the Dutch publishers’ initiative to set up a streaming subscription service for e-Books.

Canary

All contain some truth and value, but miss a bigger picture. Polare is the quintessential canary in the coal mine, which signals again and again that this is not just about the collapse of a leading book store chain. This is about the future of Dutch city centres, about a knowledge economy and about the quality of Dutch culture.

Before I continue, let me say something about my own background. I’ve been involved as founder-publisher of a specialised book publisher in New York that since its inception has been using digital technology, both on-demand printing and e-Books. Although I am a great proponent of technological innovation, I don’t believe that technology alone can solve every problem.

Downturn

Let’s now return to the perfect storm Polare got into. Let’s determine whether the external causes of Polare’s demise are structural or cyclical. First, as is well known, the number of books sold in Holland decreased dramatically: by 20% from fifty million books in 2008 to 41 million in 2013. The future will show whether this is structural or ‘just’ temporarily caused by the economic downturn.

Secondly, the advent of e-Books. Although e-Books have shown impressive growth, they only constitute 3% of total Dutch book sales. In the US, e-Books take up 20% of the market, even though American experts believe a plateau may have been reached. I expect this to be a structural development, which will only increase its impact on the Dutch book trade.

Online sales

Then, there are online sales. There are no Dutch figures available on the ratio of online vs. physical book sales, but considering the growth of Bol.com and others, it’s inevitable that online sales will increase. In the US, online book sales, including e-Books, amount to 44% of total US book sales. Therefore, this too is a structural cause of Polare’s problems.

Finally, due to the economic recession, there are over 15,000 empty retail stores in the Netherlands, most of which are in the city centres. A viscous cycle has been set in motion: there will be fewer visits to the cities and less shopping, resulting in big problems for retail stores with bankruptcies of Free Record Shop, Oad, Siebel and now the latest victim Polare.

Against this backdrop, only the best managers and entrepreneurs might be able to successfully manage a chain of high-end book stores. Clearly, Polare management has not succeeded in doing so. Whatever the exact future for the individual Polare stores, I hope that lessons will be learned. The decrease in places where books are being sold, the financial pressures on publishers and the disintegration of city centres as places for commerce and culture won’t be solved by hoping for better times or increased e-Book sales, whether or not through streaming subscription.

Dynamic

The bigger question is do we want a depleted society, where one is waiting at home for the next delivery of an online order, or do we want a dynamic society with lively cities which act as centres of commerce, knowledge and culture?

I call upon Dutch publishers, book stores and also the local governments not only to look for technological solutions but to be even more inspired by our 16^th and 17^th century history, when Amsterdam was one of the most important cities in the world and the Netherlands was a centre of European printing with famous cartographers and publishers such as Blaeu and Janssonius, and printers such as Elsevier and Plantijn. Modern vision and ingenuity combined with old-fashioned Dutch mercantile spirit should be able to create a new Dutch renaissance in this 21^st century with a viable future for reading and book stores.

Alexander M. Dake is the Dutch founder & publisher at Cosimo based in New York.

This article was published earlier in Volkskrant.nl