The new foreign affairs minister is one of the smartest guys in the cabinet, says Giles Scott-Smith of The Holland Bureau.

The retirement age climbs to 67 in 2021, mortgage tax relief is kept but the maximum amount will be reduced by 0.5% a year, health costs will be set according to income levels, 16% of all energy provision in 2020 should be sustainable, the provinces of North Holland, Utrecht, and Flevoland will be merged, the ‘wietpas’ is gone but coffeeshop customers will require proof of residency which means the end of ‘drug tourism’……and road tax on oldtimers will be introduced (sob!).

But enough of the new government’s domestic policy – what does the coalition agreement say about Dutch foreign policy? Where does Rutte II want to take the Netherlands?

First up is Foreign Affairs. New Minister Frans Timmermans is one of the smartest guys in parliament and this will be quite a shift after the depressing years of Uri Rosenthal.

The coalition agreement has Timmermans’ stamp on it, such as a strong pro-EU stance (including joining the proposed bank union), and the pursuit of peace and security in the Middle East assisted through (shock!) ‘good relations with both Israel and the Palestinian Authority.’

Trade offs

But its clear that the coalition trade-offs between VVD and PvdA have meant that VVD could push on with its existing foreign affairs agenda. The diplomatic service budget will be cut by €20m in 2014 and €40m in 2015, meaning fewer Dutch embassies and consulates. A reduced diplomatic presence will now be shared with the EU External Action Service and ‘other (European) nations.’

There will be support for tough rules to ensure each EU member gets its budget in order, otherwise no support, and – somewhat contradictory – ’the Netherlands asks the European Commission to assess, based on subsidiarity, which policy areas can be passed over to national governments, and will itself make proposals.’

In a possible nod to the Brits – or the Greeks – it should be easier for a member to step out of one or other arrangement, be it Schengen, the €, or the whole goddamn EU itself……

New job

A new post, Minister of Trade and Development Cooperation (TDC), says it all – merge diplomacy with business for a dynamic public-private profit-making problem-solving approach in developing nations.

This is the line already begun by Rosenthal in Rutte I, but this goes a step further. €1bn is taken from the Development budget – €750m for a funds to assist Dutch trade interests and €250m for a new task, International Security, to be run by TDC and Defence.

And Defence? The coalition agreement claims that ‘the armed forces must be able to meet the demands of NATO membership in the future, and be ready and able to contribute to international crisis management operations.’

Yet the old certainties are gone: ‘The Minister of Defence will develop, in consultation with the Minister of Foreign Affairs and based on the available budget, a future outlook for the armed forces.’ A tough job to square that circle – not least for the new Minister, 39-year-old former Europarliamentarian Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, who up till now has been occupied mainly with transport, justice, and gay and civil rights.

JSF

Has the JSF survived? Yes, as the JSF always survives – through postponement and the compilation of a new report by the government audit office on ‘the development and financial perspectives related to the purchase and exploitation of a replacement for the F-16, and the provision of information on this issue in the recent past.’

Based on this and the Defence Ministry’s ‘future outlook’, the coalition will decide on the F-16s successor by the end of 2013. Meanwhile, the standing agreements on the JSF’s test phase can continue…..

And the AIVD? A big crunch. Having promoted the idea of ‘forward defence’ in recent years – meaning rebuilding the service’s international activities after having seen this capability taken away in the ‘peace dividend’ early 90s – it looks like the counter-terrorism-fuelled fat years are over.

To add insult to injury, the savings on the AIVD budget by scrapping its international presence – rising from €13m in 2014 to €55m in 2017 – will partly be channelled into a strengthened domestic police force.

‘More blue on the street’ was a Wilders chant, now taken over by the VVD. But its hard to see how the AIVD can still provide an information stream from abroad by ’cooperating with other services’ if it has nothing to offer in return…..