Pro-European parties should prepare for a confrontation on Europe with the PVV and SP instead of hiding their heads in the sand, says Meindert Fennema.

In his column Framing Wouter Bos explains how political campaign teams work. They try to get the issues their parties have a popular stand on high on the political agenda whilst avoiding the themes their opponents will find favour with.
Geert Wilders is acting in complete accordance with this strategy. In his efforts to focus attention on Europe he is even getting the law involved, the argument being that the government acted unlawfully by putting the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) treaty up for a vote before parliament. What Wilders is implying is that the Dutch €40bn contribution to the European emergency fund is ‘unlawful’.
Oldest claim
The PVV and SP will profit from their focus on the current problems in the euro zone. Both parties are on record as having consistently questioned the monetary and budgetary policies of the euro zone. The SP has the oldest claim: it voiced its protests when Wilders was still a member of the VVD parliamentary party and voted for the Greek entry to the euro zone along with everybody else.
The most important adherents of the ESM, i.e. VVD, CDA and PvdA, are doing their utmost not to make the elections about Europe. From the performances of Stef Blok (VVD) and Diederik Samsom on Knevel & Van den Brink one could get the impression that the elections are exclusively about how to cut spending, with the former Greenpeace activist arguing for tax relief for commuters and Blok wanting to deprive the hard-working citizen of this little windfall. How things have changed.
Old scores
It looks as if the debate between party leaders Mark Rutte and Diederik Samsom will be a repeat performance of the famous debate between Hans Wiegel and Joop den Uyl in 1973. (Wiegel: Do you still believe in Sinterklaas? He’s sitting right over there!). VVD and PvdA are settling old scores.
According to Wouter Bos they are wise to do so because a Volkskrant poll said voters’ main concerns at the moment are the economy, employment, income and healthcare. Debt policy and Europe don’t come high on the list. But Bos adds: ‘And then, wouldn’t you know it, the Greeks leave the euro. Time to re-frame.’ Political short term thinking couldn’t be typified more accurately than that.
The campaign strategies of VVD, CDA and PvdA are doomed to failure, based as they are on the supposition that reality equals media reports and that reality can be reduced to framing – a communication studies term. In short, the theory behind framing is that a problem is only a problem when parties turn it into a problem.
That theory doesn’t always hold water. A case in point is the electoral success of the PVV whose anti-Islam stand referred to cultural issues in a campaign dominated by social-economic issues.
Not everyone votes along the lines set out by campaign leaders and political scientists. The power of the media is not so extensive that it can manipulate reality – as it is perceived by voters – to be what they want it to be.
Colossal
This goes for Europe in particular. The problems of the euro zone are so colossal that most people will have no doubt about what the elections will really be about. And politicians who don’t want to discuss this are giving the opponents of European unity a perfect opportunity to grab the initiative.
VVD, CDA and PvdA are putting their heads in the sand and are hoping voters will do the same. That is highly unlikely. Pro-European parties would do well to prepare for a tough confrontation from which they may not emerge the winners. A majority of voters is at best eurosceptic. But the damage can be limited by formulating an honest and clear stand on Europe.
Leadership
There is no doubt the SP and PVV will win. Parties which oppose them intelligently and convincingly will reap the rewards, especially in the long term. D66 and GroenLinks are among the parties who would profit most from such a strategy. PvdA and VVD could also benefit but they are hampered by the fact that their voters are divided on Europe, a problem they are solving by ignoring it.
Leadership is based on more than poll results. Leadership is also about having a vision of the Netherlands’ place in the world. An elite that doesn’t understand this is doomed.
Meindert Fennema is a professor emeritus of Political Theory.