Election campaigns are promising to be fast and furious. Politicians will have to go into market stallholder mode. Who will shout the loudest of them all? asks Jouke de Vries.

In the coming weeks and months the attention of the Dutch will be mainly focused on the European football championships, Wimbledon, the Tour de France and the Olympic Games. And it’s the time of year when a large part of the population goes on holiday.
Fast and furious
When they come home, the politicians will have to remind them that there is an election on September 12th. That means proper campaigning won’t start until the last week of August and will reach fever pitch during the first two weeks of September. The campaigns are promising to be fast and furious. What will be their main characteristics?
Fast and furious campaigns tend to boil down to a lot of verbal acrobatics. Much will depend on the politician’s talent for rhetoric. Good communication skills will be vital. Is the political leader witty? Can he explain a complex issue in one sentence? Framing and blaming will be the rder of the day when it comes to the issues and people of the moment.
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One possible frame is Europe. Or pensions. Or a possible cooperation with the PVV, which can be used to disqualify political opponents. A politician might be up against an irksome media image. Rutte has been dubbed ‘the laugh-it-all-off prime-minister’. He has since been reported to contain his mirth a bit more. GroenLinks has been confronted with a leadership contest when Dibi Tofik put himself up as a candidate. It will be difficult for the party to defuse the suggestion of internal division.
Fast and furious campaigns do not need vision. The country is faced with enormous problems but the campaigns will not be based on content. It is hardly possible to focus on long term problems and so the short term will take centre stage. According to Belgian politician Bart de Wever, politicians no longer take it one day at the time but one minute at the time.
Stallholders
Fast and furious campaigns require politicians who can behave like stallholders in a street market. And it seems they are taking to the role. The present generation of politicians are shouting their lungs out to get the voters’ attention. This election’s stallholders are Alexander Pechtold (an auctioneer’s son), Mark Rutte (the great communicator), Geert Wilders (the underestimated political entrepreneur), Emile Roemer (the jolly headmaster) and Diederik Samsom (the fiery activist). It’s doubtful whether solid Van Haersma Buma and timid Sap will be able to get a word in edgewise.
Although rhetoric will win the day, when the dust has settled politicians will have show considerable administrative mettle in order to profit from the election results. They will have to able to politicise but also to de-politicise. It looks as if most politicians come with well-equipped toolboxes. Their verbal qualities are adequate, and on top of that they have administrative qualities and know how to de-politicise issues. Examples of the latter are the formation of the minority cabinet (VVD, CDA, PVV); the Kunduz mission and the subsequent Kunduz accord (GroenLinks) andthe opposition support (PvdA) for European issues and national issues such as pensions.
Rattle
Wilders alone will choose to politicise. The crisis has put him in an administrative off-side position and he will not take part in a government coalition, not even if his party come out on top. Like a pariah he will roam the parliamentary chambers, rattle in hand. It is likely he will opt for further political obstructionism. Wilders should not be underestimated. His ability to politicise matters is second to none. It’s a tool he will use to throw the campaigns of others into confusion (the great meddler) and put pressure on the political centre.
Voter capriciousness makes it very difficult to predict the results of these elections. Unexpected events, such as the possible financial collapse of Greece and Spain, would play havoc with the campaigns and not only shake up but possibly even turn over the political mattress. No coalition preferences will be made known before the elections, although the Kunduz-coalition is hovering over the market stalls.
Polls say that D66 has a pivotal position and will be essential in most coalitions. The Christen Unie and GroenLinks share a close second place in this respect. But the polls also say that anything could still happen. The question is which of the two events will prove to be the most exciting: the European championship or the Dutch elections.
Jouke de Vries is Professor of Public Administration at Leiden University.

This article was published earlier in Trouw