This afternoon the new cabinet, also called Dino 1 or the zimmerframe cabinet, will finally be saying cheese on the steps of the palace, writes Martin Sommer in an analysis in the Volkskrant .

It has been criticized for its lack of women and members from an immigrant background. And of course, there’s indignation about the cabinet’s silent partner Geert Wilders. With all this background noise going on it is not easy to see what’s behind the smiles.
To start off with, it hasn’t turned out to be another LPF cabinet. No former real estate types this time around, or other iffy political adventurers. It is, as has been pointed out, a very jovial cabinet: they are all friends together. Services have been repaid. But in the rest of the world this is common practice – a prime minister is likely to fish in his own pond; it gives cohesion to the team.
End of tether
It could also be that the Christian Democrats, fast approaching the end of their tether and deeply divided about cabinet participation, were a little low on suitable candidates. In spite of this, or perhaps because of it, the cabinet that will be having its picture taken with the queen this afternoon is made up of dyed-in-the-wool political veterans. That, in a polarised society, is a reassuring thought.
The Dutch are divided about this cabinet. Around half the population thinks it may work out while 37 percent thinks it probably won’t, said pollster Maurice de Hond on Sunday. Rutte has only just started and is still getting the benefit of the doubt. Both right and left wing voters are relatively happy with their chirpy new prime minister.
No nonsense
Just like Rutte, the members of the new cabinet are displaying a no nonsense, enough is enough mentality which can also be detected elsewhere. New Labour mayor Eberhard van der Laan has promised to get tough on squatters and is putting a stop to the financial sheenanigans of Amsterdam Oost councillors.
This attitude definitely constitutes a shift to the right. Rutte may deny it but that is what got him elected. In May 2009 his party was predicted to win only 15 seats and had no idea where it was heading. The pivotal moment came when Rutte put forward a motion of no confidence against Balkenende last autumn. From then on he took a hard line on financial-economic policy and immigration. He was covering his flank against a Wilders attack. And he won.
Wilders’ ten point plan
Maurice de Hond recently had another look at Wilders’ 2004 ten point plan. He was still a member of the VVD then and wanted his party to shift further to the right. The point that ultimately did for him was his stance on Turkey’s membership of the EU. It should never happen, said Wilders.
And look where we are now. Many of his then extremely right wing ideas have now become main stream VVD policy and have even popped up in a watered down version in the cabinet accord. It doesn’t say Turkey may never become a member but states instead that any new membership will depend on the EU’s capacity to ‘absorb’ it. Enough said.
It was all there

The speed limit hike, the cuts in development aid, sanctions for new comers who don’t integrate quickly enough – it was all there, in Wilders’ ten point plan. Banning radical mosques has been translated into ‘closing down institutions in which criminal activity takes place such as incitement to violence’.
Had he presented his ten points now, Wilders would never have had to leave the VVD. Meanwhile Wilders himself has shifted even further to the right. But the VVD is now where Wilders was in 2004. And the Christian Democrats, that is the remaining part that support the cabinet, are right there with it. And even the left is toughening up on immigration.

Mirror
Overall, society has become more right of centre, according to De Hond’s findings. In 2004 39 percent agreed Turkey should never be allowed into the EU, now it’s 51 percent.
That shift is mirrored in the cabinet.
Paul Schnabel, head of socio-cultural planning office SCP, once said that the PVV’s success is like a three stage rocket: he is not a classic example of the extreme right politician but defending the welfare state against ‘reformers’; ‘the Netherlands of old’ against a borderless European and the freedom of the sixties (women’s and gay rights) against islam.
Rutte won’t like it but now that’s part of his agenda too. And another name has come up for his team: the SP government. The Socialist Party are culturally and socio-economically conservative. SP leader Emile Roemer had a big grin on his face when he said he couldn’t really find the cutbacks in the accord.

Unions
Teacher’s unions are keeping very quiet as well. There is a paragraph on the care for the elderly that is almost ridiculously detailed (no 24 hour diapers) and heath care costs are merrily allowed to continue to get out of hand.
The FNV, apart form it’s artist’s union Kiem, is not saying anything either. All in all, the VVD is not overly worried about the debate following the official presentation of the accord in parliament. There will undoubtedly be complaints about the lack of reform.
But GroenLinks and D66 are not powerful enough to pose a threat. And the VVD will return the question: and what would you do Mr Cohen, reform social security, employment regulations, health insurance? This cabinet may last longer than many think or hope.
This is an unofficial translation
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