Will you be following your convictions tomorrow? Or are you hedging your bets by voting strategically? Do the opportunities outweigh the risks? The Volkskrant explains.

You are voting VVD
The VVD was looking for a divisive campaign and that is what it got, with the VVD and Labour each in their clearly defined corners. This is why you have decided not to go with the CDA, PVV or D66 because although you are not an out and out liberal you certainly don’t want Job Cohen in the top job. Labour is far too cavalier about the state deficit. And wasn’t Cohen the one who wanted ‘a progressive coalition’?
And so perhaps for the first time you are voting VVD. Mark Rutte didn’t exactly turn mortgage tax relief into a coalition breaker but he did give his word. In spite of his vote of no confidence in Balkenende IV Rutte gets on swimmingly with the CDA leader. When Rutte and Balkenende were having a row, perceptive Emile Roemer (SP) said it looked more like a vow.
Risks
But who will the VVD choose to get into bed with? Perhaps it will be Job Cohen after all? With D66 and possibly GroenLinks to make up a foursome? It might mean a Labour finance minister and then what will happen to your mortgage tax relief. If the uncertainty is killing you, you are better off voting CDA or PVV. If you are one of those who object to a VVD-PVV coalition then remember that Mark Rutte still hasn’t ruled out a partnership with Wilders.
You are voting PVV or SP
Rutte and Cohen may be neck-and-neck in the polls but you don’t trust either. A vote for the PVV or the SP is at least a clear one. If you are voting PVV you have no objection to prime minister Rutte but only if he is heading a VVD, PVV, CDA coalition. If you are voting SP your cabinet of choice will be headed by Cohen, with GroenLinks and D66, and the Christian Union and the Animal Party for extra padding.
You could go for the protest vote. Your party doesn’t necessarily have to be included in the cabinet as long as it makes a lot of noise from the side lines about issues that concern you. A lot of PVV or SP members of parliament could make a difference and steer policies your way.
Risks
A vote for the SP could be a vote for Mark Rutte. Labour needs your vote in order to save the Netherlands from the liberal wilderness. And vice versa: those who vote for Wilders instead of Rutte could be paving the way for Cohen.
You are voting Labour
The first VVD prime minister? A rightwing cabinet with Geert Wilders? Over your dead body. Rutte and his ‘reckless’ spending cuts must be stopped and so must the drop in spending power and the liberalisation of the health care system. Slamming the door of the welfare state in the face of new citizens, who does Rutte think he is?
Risks
You are probably an SP, GroenLinks or D66 voter but you will go for labour this time. You won’t know what you’re getting though. Cohen could use your vote to create another ‘purple’cabinet and you’ll be stuck with the VVD after all. In fact, this is a likely scenario as a leftwing majority is a long way away. Even the old CDA coalition you hated so much may become a possibility. Job Cohen can swing either way.

You are voting CDA
And the winner is…not JP Balkenende. There are at least 13 seats between your prime minister of choice and Mark Rutte. You are aiming to keep the VVD from veering to the left where libertarian and ungodly policies lurk. Such a nightmare coalition could easily get its paws on the mortgage tax relief no matter what Rutte said. And what about the legalisation of soft drugs or the abolition of student grants? These could be around the corner.
Risks
Although Balkenende is against it is possible that your vote will go towards a coalition with the PVV. Rutte is making eyes at Wilders for everyone to see but you think that this is one adventure you don’t care for. You are also voting for an almost ex-politician: it is very likely that Balkenende will leave politics after the 9th. And who will his successor be? Is it Ab Klink? Jan de Jager? You simply don’t know.

You are voting D66 or GroenLinks
You could help Job Cohen or Mark Rutte but you would rather follow your heart. Alexander Pechtold (D66) is in favour of a coalition that includes VVD, Labour, D66 and perhaps GroenLinks. Are you wavering between VVD and D66 but want to keep the PVV out? Then choose D66. You are preventing a rightwing cabinet and forcing Rutte towards the centre. A vote for D66 is a vote for government either with CDA and VVD or in a ‘purple’coalition. D66 will be there no matter what and can get to work on its reform agenda.
If you want a leftwing cabinet a strategic vote for GroenLinks or the SP is in order. Labour is not prepared to state a preference for a leftwing government but Femke Halsema is preparing for a left turn and is fighting hard to get into the right lane.

Risks
You are voting for a small party, depriving the big ones a go at becoming the biggest. But a vote for D66 or GroenLinks doesn’t come with any guarantees either. Halsema said it herself: everybody wants to dance with me. She is mentioned as a partner in both the reform cabinet CDA, VVD, D66 and ‘Purple Plus’. Pechtold is talking ‘purple’ until he is purple in the face but if he can form a government with just VVD and CDA he probably won’t say no, coalition breaker or no coalition breaker.

This is an unofficial translation. For the original article, click here