The Holland Bureau‘s Giles Scott Smith takes a look at the implications of Labour’s backtracking on buying the Joint Strike Fighter.

Staying ahead of the pack is a costly business, especially if it refers to military hardware. High technology doesn’t come cheap, but if it ensures advantages over all other adversaries then it can be worth it. The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is meant to be such an item, placing its owners beyond the capabilities of more conventional flying weapons platforms. But its not an easy business to get it from concept to customer. Last week the Dutch parliament passed a motion that placed the further involvement of the Netherlands in some doubt.
In 2002 the Dutch government under Wim Kok decided to participate in the project, investing 858 million Euro in the JSF’s development phase. The mainline strike aircraft, the F-16, was still way ahead of the competition, but always staying ahead requires planning, and the JSF would fit the bill in the early 21st century. It was a neat exercise in transatlantic ‘burden-sharing’. Future national customers would invest in developing the aircraft, while at the same time specific sections would be tendered out to businesses as a form of repayment. If it worked, everyone would come out with a machine that was adapted to their needs and contributed to by their industry. In theory, anyway.
In 2006 – just before the national elections – the Balkenende government signed a Memorandum of Understanding more or less committing the Netherlands to contribute to the production phase. At the time this was seen by some as a way of ‘locking in’ Dutch involvement regardless of what a future government might do. But the production phase has still not begun. We are still in the Initial Operational Test and Evaluation phase, during which the prototype can be checked out and adapted according to specific needs. The Dutch Air Force has expressed a strong desire to take part in this phase as a way of having some influence on the final product. Estimated costs to take part in this – 274 million Euro. So far only the UK is joining the US in doing so. Potential JSF partners such as Turkey, Canada, Italy, and Australia have all given it a miss.
The Netherlands wanted to be part of the leading team. In 2008 the parliament voted to join the Test phase in principle, but then the problems started. A condition was that two test aircraft had to be purchased, at 20 million Euro each. The Labour party in parliament opposed this, leading to a compromise of a single plane. Now, with delays seemingly eternal and cost over-runs seemingly endless, in the final session before recess for the elections the parliament has voted in a Labour motion to step out of the Test phase. Other motions were also passed to ensure that no definite decision to replace the F-16 with the JSF would be taken.
Of course, the question is who will be in the cabinet after the June 9 elections and whether they will stick by these parliamentary decisions. The motions were supported by an interesting cross-section of Labour, GreenLeft, the Socialists, D 66, and Wilders’ PVV. The tipping point has been the continuing delays and unexpected higher costs since agreeing to buy a test aircraft last year. On 19 May the Armed Services Committee of the US House of Representatives expressed deep concerns over the JSF project, to the point of requesting that more F-18 Hornets be purchased to cover a shortfall in strike aircraft due to the four year (and growing) delay in getting the F-35 operational. The following day the Dutch parliament took action.
So where will this go? Business reacted with dismay, seeing the possibility of lucrative defense contracts disappearing. The NIFARP – Netherlands Industrial Fighter Aircraft Replacement Platform – is the interest/lobby group that represents this community, and they swiftly sent out a press release lamenting the negative shift of Labour and the consequences for jobs in the future. Relations between the JSF’s Lockheed Martin and the Dutch aerospace industry are close. But Labour has just come out with its manifesto for the elections, including its intentions to cut public spending, and a move against the JSF was inevitable as a way to include the Ministry of Defence in this scenario.
As for the Ministry itself, they put out an estimate for what it will cost if the Netherlands has to organise its own test phase separate from the Pentagon’s programme – 200 million Euro. The message – if we quit now to save money, we pay a higher bill later. But as Mark Kranenburg of the NRC remarked, this figure seems ever so slightly on the high side. Which indicates that Defence really wants its high-tech JSF to keep the Dutch military part of the Anglo-American cutting edge. Meanwhile, the F-16 continues to be one of the best things around. And there are other options available, such as the fully functioning, already operational Eurofighter. Anyone who would like some interesting insights into what Dutch Atlanticism is all about should take a long look at the JSF saga.

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