Geert Wilders anti-Islam PVV has lost 20% of its support in recent opinion polls. Has the PVV peaked too early? asks Robin Pascoe

A few weeks ago Geert Wilders was in London, describing himself to the waiting international press as the possible next prime minister of the Netherlands.
It was a statement happily picked up by reporters who were curious to listen again to the man who emerged as the big winner in the local elections.

Victories
The PVV had come from nowhere to become the biggest party in the polder city of Almere and second biggest in the The Hague. The victories, albeit in just two of the country’s 430 plus local authority areas, made headlines around the world.
Since then, however, the gloss appears to be wearing off. From an all-time high in the polls which put the PVV on upwards of 27 seats, the party is now hovering at around 21 in the 150 seat parliament.
In the European elections, the PVV took 17% of the vote, in the Hague it took 17% and in Almere 21%. Now its support nationwide is around 14% and the party is trailing the traditional big three, Labour, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals.
So what went wrong?
Mistakes
Wilders has uncharacteristically made a number of political mistakes. His description of Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan as a ‘total freak’ during his London trip was greeted by disbelief and shock from the international press corps.
Secondly, his decision to make a headscarf ban in public buildings the party’s main demand in local council coalition negotiations effectively put the PVV out of the running to form administrations in Almere and the Hague.
Not only were no other parties prepared to go along with the demand, but a significant percentage of the party’s own supporters thought the party had damaged its own chances of full participation in local politics by sticking to such a trivial issue.

Delays
And it took Wilders a full month to come out publicly and say he wanted to correct the mistaken impression that a headscarf ban was all important – something he could have easily set straight immediately after the vote. A question of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted.
Thirdly, his decision to attend the premier of a film about his war on Islam partly backed by an staunchly anti-gay Christian group in the US – saying he could disagree with their views but they were welcome to make a film about him – caused more than a few raised eyebrows.
Wilders went on to pull out of the premier after newspaper De Pers ran a major expose of the Christian Action Network. But it is surprising that Wilders who keeps such a careful eye on his party’s image did not do its homework properly before accepting the invitation in the first place.
Isolation
Foreign minister Maxime Verhagen, other politicians and even the head of the country’s biggest employers’ organisation have now publicly condemned Wilders – a surprise move given the kid glove treatment he has had until now.
And there is mounting concern about the effect of such outbursts – from the man who says he might be the next prime minister – on the reputation of the Netherlands abroad.
Perhaps, as one unofficial book about the politician earlier this year suggested, the years of isolation and being under armed guard are beginning to take their toll on both Wilders’ mental health and political acumen.

Immigration
But on top of the mistakes in judgment, Wilders also has to deal with parties at home stealing his thunder. The VVD, now soaring well above the PVV in the polls, takes a strong line on immigration and integration in its election manifesto.
And that too is chipping away at Wilders’ support.
Couple that to the growing realisation that Wilders is never going to be part of the next government because no other party can risk doing business with him and all but die-hard PVV supporters start ebbing away.
Influence
Of course the PVV will win more than nine seats in the June 9 general election, but its chances of exerting any significant influence on post election events are practically zero.
And, with the election being called so much earlier than expected, he still has his work cut out to find enough suitable potential MPs to fill his candidate list – let alone produce any government ministers.